Argentina Chancellery
JOSE BRECHNER in December 2004, warned for the first time since this column, that if Evo Morales came to power, conditions of national confrontation among Bolivians that could lead to a civil war would result. Cannot be apocalyptic nor deterministic, but there are factors immovable in the nature of people to predict what will be their actions according to their previous behavior. Believing that an emotional leader, who is always on the defensive, to modify their provocative attitudes when you’re depending on Government to responsibly manage a country, is utopian. People usually do not change. Based on simple premise, it is impossible that Evo Morales learns of coup and by osmosis, to govern a State in a peaceful and democratic manner.
Bolivian President unknown details of public administration, international relations and macroeconomics. His ministers nor show have more knowledge or experience than him. What is feared to come, is not only a vision personal logic obeys data analyzed by experts who have been issued a few days ago a report singularly disturbing with regard to the future of the nation of the altiplano. The study by the group in support of the foreign communities of the Argentina Chancellery, shows left a dramatic situation in Bolivia, which will deeply affect its neighbors. The analysis reveals, on the basis of the model developed by Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler, exists a 56 percent likelihood that unleashed a civil war. Dissimilar variables such as primary exports, GDP, GDP per capita, GDP growth, months of peace, geographic concentration, population, social division and ethnic predominance was taken into consideration for the production of the work. The pattern is used for decades by enterprises of magnitude, especially in the United States, to establish the risks which the countries of the world to their potential investments. The base is set with the calculation of historic regressions on wars civilians, showing that the cause of internal military confrontation of greatest importance are economic, insofar as the social and political reasons much less affect the fragility of the Nations.